The Inevitables: Death and Taxes

401(K) 2013在CC by - sa 2下授权.0

The Inevitables: Death and Taxes

Death and taxes, the two inevitables.  在像商业地产这样的资本密集型行业, 税收和利率是驱动所有房产和房产类型回报的两个最大费用因素.  Of course, 我们都知道，在过去的十年里，物业税急剧上升, 随着估价区把“估价”推得越来越高.  每一个业主每年都必须抗议他们的估价, 大多数公司还会为商业地产聘请财产税顾问.

The 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange

财产税是一个长期存在的问题，但资本利得税只有在你出售房产时才会出现.  自1921年诞生以来，1031税收递延交换已广泛应用于商业房地产.  Happy 100^th Birthday, 1031! As you probably know, 美国国税局的这一规定允许商业财产的卖方将类似的交易转换为另一种商业投资财产, 如果您遵循基本规则:使用合格中介, 在出售原房产后的45天内指定您的新房产，并在首次出售后的180天内完成新购买, plus some additional conditions to be met.

Biden Administration Targets 1031 Exchange

现在拜登政府上台了，他们渴望新的税收收入，并希望把目标对准富裕阶层. 1031交易所长期以来一直是政治目标，今年也不例外.  The April 29^th 拜登的税收提案包括将可延期的最高限额限制在50万美元.  考虑到大多数商业房地产交易都达到了数百万美元, even tens and hundreds of millions, 这将严重抑制房地产投资和销售.  Fortunately, 有一个非常大的房地产游说者团体，特别是商业地产，他们强烈反对这项立法.  Carl Pikus of IPX, a firm specializing in 1031 exchange facilitation, told me his sources say that the 1031 is safe, 限制扣除额的努力可能不会有结果. Whew!

Strong Market Continues

So, the good news is that investment properties, 开发前的土地，甚至是娱乐地产现在都在争抢.   Green Street, the top international real estate analyst, says overall, properties are up 7% in the first half of the year alone. In San Antonio, future apartment sites, subdivision land, retail pad sites, you name it, are getting offers, even multiple offers at asking prices.  投资性房产相对难找，因为大多数业主都不想卖掉.  除了购买另一处他们不太了解的房产，他们还会用这笔钱做什么?  寻找增值/修补修补是非常困难的，需要经过多年经验磨练的特殊技能.  So just sit tight, push your rents 2% and pay the @#$% taxes, or pass them through to your tenants, who then can’t afford to pay higher rents.  Think of the Tax Man as your silent partner in your investment; one who always has first preference on your income; and is your highest operating expense by far, after all.

United States Federal Reserve’s Loan Purchasing Frenzy

我是在1984年进入这个行业的，当时正值20世纪80年代经济大繁荣末期 & 阳光地带的贷款产生了太多的建筑贷款.  That ended badly in the 7-year RTC times, 德克萨斯州的房地产市场出现了非常严重的萧条，价格下跌了50%以上, and even 90%.  Then, two decades later in 2004-2008, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, cmo和CMBS向房地产市场注入了太多资金, and that ended badly in the Great Recession.  但是现在我们有了美国联邦储备委员会以及世界各地的中央银行, pumping too many trillions into the market, pushing up stock prices, pushing down bond prices and jumping up property values.  美联储每个月购买1200亿美元的贷款! 其中400亿美元用于抵押贷款，使利率保持在极低水平.    The question is, 为什么他们要榨取一个没有陷入困境的资产类别? 恰恰相反，房屋销售正在飙升.  Can’t build them fast enough.  也许答案是“政治”，但那不是我的专业领域.

Continuing Uncertainty

So we can all together wonder, how will this one end?   许多人预计，经济体系中过多的货币将导致通货膨胀加剧.  他们还预计美联储将在更长时间内保持低利率, 也许时间太长，这将对经济和我们的个人生活造成真正的损害.

Pros and Cons of Inflation

房地产通常从通货膨胀中受益，因为租金可以提高，以配合消费价格的上涨.  大多数房地产都是高度杠杆化的，在购买时抵押贷款设定的价格高达75%.  It helps that interest rates are currently at historic lows making your interest expense very low. Thanks again, FED. 你的抵押贷款余额只会随着抵押贷款逐渐被租户的租金还清而下降. As the mortgage goes down, your equity builds up.  不管通货膨胀如何，你的抵押贷款还款额保持不变, so if the net income increases, all of that increase goes to the owner’s 25% stake.  A 1% increase in rents is magnified four-fold.  而且你的大部分收入都是通过折旧冲销来避税的.  然后，你增加的收入会导致房产的整体价值上升. For every $1.如果营业净收入增加，你的财产价值就会增加13美元.33, assuming a 7.5% capitalization rate.  As the value of your property goes up, all of that increase also goes to the owner, not the mortgage holder.  你的房产价值增加25%，你的股权/首付款的价值就会翻倍.

通货膨胀在提高租金的同时，也增加了财产税和其他开支. 从历史上看，通货膨胀推动的租金涨幅超过了其他支出, increasing your net operating income, and that increase goes just to the owner, not the lender.

Unintended Consequences

So, are we in for long term high inflation?  我们正在经历的这种强劲的经济反弹会趋于平稳吗? Or burn out?  We live in very interesting times. 出人意料的事件和意想不到的后果似乎已成为新常态.